Democrats are entering next year’s Senate elections with difficult odds. The political map simply doesn’t favor them, and to win back the majority, they’ll need to perform strongly in conservative states that usually lean Republican — including Texas.
Right now, Republicans hold a 53–47 edge in the Senate. Democrats see the GOP-held seats in Maine and North Carolina as their best chances to flip. Maine supported former Vice President Kamala Harris by around seven points in the last election, while North Carolina narrowly backed Donald Trump by about three points. These are the only clear battlegrounds where Democrats feel they have a real shot.
However, with few other competitive races in states that Harris won or where Trump’s victory margin was slim, Democrats are being forced to stretch their efforts into tougher territories like Texas. Early polling has shown that the race there could be closer than expected — giving Democrats a small glimmer of hope.
Representative Jasmine Crockett, a rising Democratic figure first elected to Congress in 2022, is now seriously considering a run for the Texas Senate seat. Her potential candidacy would shake up the Democratic primary, which already includes several prominent contenders. Crockett has gained national attention for her outspoken opposition to Donald Trump and her fiery defense of Democratic values. Kamala Harris has even praised her as one of the party’s “authentic voices” for the future.
Speaking to Politico’s Dasha Burns, Crockett revealed that she is collecting data before making a final decision. “I’m a data-driven person,” she said. “I believe Texas needs to do something different if it wants a different result. That’s the bottom line.” She also confirmed that she’s been in discussions with a potential campaign director and is analyzing who the Republican nominee might be, noting that beating long-time GOP Senator John Cornyn would be extremely difficult for any Democrat.
If Crockett does enter the race, she would face off against state legislator James Talarico and former Congressman Colin Allred — who ran as the Democratic nominee in 2024 — in what’s shaping up to be a crowded primary. Other big names like Joaquin Castro and Beto O’Rourke have been mentioned as possible candidates, though neither has officially joined the race yet.
Recent polls show Crockett leading among Democrats in Texas. One survey found her at 31 percent support, followed by Talarico and O’Rourke at 25 percent each, while Allred trailed with 13 percent. In a general election matchup, however, Crockett still trails the Republican candidates. Senator Cornyn led her by six points, Attorney General Ken Paxton by two, and Representative Wesley Hunt by five — suggesting that the GOP still holds a clear edge in the state.
Crockett’s strength appears most visible among Democratic voters who appreciate her boldness and energy. Political analyst Mark Jones from Rice University explained that both Crockett and O’Rourke are popular in the primary because “they’ve been strong voices against the Trump administration and Republican leadership,” adding that Democratic voters are more drawn to fighters than moderates.
Despite her enthusiasm and name recognition, the road ahead for Crockett or any Democrat in Texas remains steep. Political forecasters still categorize the Texas Senate race as “likely Republican,” indicating that the GOP remains favored to hold the seat. Still, Democrats are betting that with Texas’s growing urban and youth vote — and with a dynamic candidate like Crockett — they could make the race competitive enough to keep their hopes alive for reclaiming the Senate majority.
For now, all eyes are on Crockett’s next move. Whether she decides to run could signal how aggressively Democrats plan to fight in red states in 2026 — and whether Texas might finally start shifting from reliably Republican to truly competitive ground.
