President Donald Trump has openly said that if the upcoming midterm elections go badly for his party, he could end up being impeached. His warning comes at a time when the political mood in the country is shifting in a way that could make those elections especially challenging for him.
More Americans than ever now say they do not belong to either the Republican or Democratic Party. According to Gallup surveys conducted throughout 2025, about 45 percent of U.S. adults identify as political independents. This is the highest number Gallup has ever recorded and is higher than previous peaks seen in 2014, 2023, and 2024.
This rise in independent voters matters a lot now that Trump is back in the White House. Independents tend to approve of Trump less than Republicans do, and they are usually less tolerant of long-running political fights and drama. Trump’s past election wins have depended heavily on motivating his most loyal supporters, but midterm elections are often decided by voters in the middle who do not strongly identify with either party.
Because Republicans currently hold only narrow majorities in Congress, this shift puts extra pressure on the party as it heads into the midterms. Losing even a small number of seats could mean losing control of the House or Senate.
Trump has made it clear that he is worried. In a recent meeting with House Republicans, he said that if the party loses control of the House, he would “get impeached.” He also acknowledged that history usually works against the president’s party during midterm elections, but argued that strongly promoting his administration’s policies could help Republicans win.
Gallup’s findings are based on interviews with more than 13,000 adults conducted over the course of 2025. People were simply asked whether they see themselves as Republicans, Democrats, or independents.
Much of the growth in independent identification is coming from younger Americans. Most adults in Generation Z and among millennials now say they are independents. More than four in ten people in Generation X say the same. Older generations are different: only about one-third or fewer of baby boomers and members of the Silent Generation identify as independents.
Younger people today are also more likely to call themselves independents than young people were in the past. About 56 percent of Generation Z adults now identify this way. By comparison, only 47 percent of millennials did so in 2012, and just 40 percent of Generation X adults did in 1992.
For Trump, another important detail is that independents are not evenly split in their political leanings. Among those who call themselves independents, about 20 percent lean toward the Democratic Party, 15 percent lean toward the Republican Party, and 10 percent say they do not lean toward either side. Compared with 2024, fewer independents now lean Republican, while more lean Democratic.
When party members and leaners are counted together, about 47 percent of Americans in 2025 either identify with or lean toward Democrats. About 42 percent identify with or lean toward Republicans. This reverses a trend from the previous three years, when Republicans had a slight edge, and brings the numbers back to levels seen during Trump’s first term, when Democrats consistently held an advantage.
Other recent polls help explain why independents may be pulling away from Trump. A YouGov/CBS poll found that more than 61 percent of respondents believe Trump is downplaying how serious high prices and inflation really are. Nearly half said they expect his policies to leave them worse off financially by 2026. Another poll from AP-NORC showed that only 31 percent of respondents approve of how Trump is handling the economy.
Taken together, these signs suggest that growing dissatisfaction among independents, especially younger voters, could pose a serious problem for Trump and Republicans as the midterm elections approach.
