AI’s ‘jaw-dropping’ prediction on who will win the 2028 US presidential election
A detailed YouTube video took a close look at early predictions for the 2028 US presidential election. The creator examined state-by-state forecasts, early primary polling numbers, and even betting market odds to build a picture of what might happen. The video focused on a prediction made by Grok, the artificial intelligence chatbot created by Elon Musk. Grok is built into Musk’s social media platform, X, which many people still call Twitter.
There has been talk for some time about whether Donald Trump might try to run for a third term. However, under US law, he is not allowed to do that. The Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution clearly states that no person can be elected president more than twice. It also says that if someone has served more than two years of another president’s term, they can only be elected once. Because of this rule, Trump cannot run again in 2028.
With Trump out of the picture, attention turns to who might compete instead. For the purpose of the Grok prediction, the YouTube channel “Election Time” entered several possible Democratic candidates into the system. These included Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Josh Shapiro, J. B. Pritzker, Cory Booker, and Tim Walz. Many of these names have been mentioned in political discussions and media reports as possible contenders.
According to early Democratic primary polls shared in mid-February, Harris was leading with 32 percent support among Democratic voters. Newsom followed with 23.8 percent. At the time the video was released, there was also said to be a 56 percent chance that Harris would officially run again for the Democratic nomination.
On the Republican side, the early favorite appeared to be JD Vance. As of February 12, he was polling at 49.2 percent, putting him well ahead of the other potential candidates. Donald Trump Jr. was in second place with 19.5 percent. Other Republicans mentioned as possible candidates included Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, and Vivek Ramaswamy.
Based on the data it analyzed, Grok predicted that the final candidates in 2028 would be Harris for the Democrats and Vance for the Republicans. The AI suggested there was a 46 percent chance that Vance would become the official Republican nominee.
Using Harris and Vance as the main candidates, the video then looked at how different states might vote. Vance was projected to have strong support in traditionally Republican states such as Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, most of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Ohio.
Harris’s strongest states were expected to look similar to the states she performed well in during the 2024 election. These included California, Washington, Hawaii, Vermont, and Massachusetts. One notable change in the 2028 prediction was that Delaware and Connecticut were expected to be solidly in her column as well.
In the end, Grok’s overall forecast gave JD Vance 326 electoral votes and Kamala Harris 212. If that prediction were to come true, it would mean another four years with a Republican president in the White House.
