Food prices in the United States have been rising and falling in recent years, leaving many families confused about what is really happening. Several issues such as tariffs, the conflict with Iran, immigration policies, and even weather conditions have played a role in affecting the cost of groceries.
There is both good news and bad news when it comes to food prices. Overall inflation dropped slightly to 2.4% compared to the previous year’s 2.7%. However, food prices in December 2025 were still about 3.1% higher than they were the year before.
One piece of good news is the sharp drop in egg prices. Because the avian flu outbreak has eased, the cost of eggs has fallen dramatically. The price for a dozen eggs has dropped by about 59% compared to last year.
Katina Holliday, a family nurse practitioner who also owns Freshly’s Market in Aberdeen, Mississippi, said eggs at her store now cost less than $2 per dozen. Her store is located in what is known as a “food desert,” an area where residents have limited access to affordable and healthy food.
However, Holliday explained that running a grocery store has become more difficult. In the past, grocery stores usually made profit margins of around 3% to 5%. Now, those margins have fallen to between 1% and 3%, making it harder for small store owners to stay profitable.
While eggs have become cheaper, many other food items have become more expensive. Holliday said cereal prices have increased significantly. In the past, store-brand cereal could be bought for about $1, but now popular brands like Kellogg’s can cost around $5 for a small box.
She also pointed out how expensive fresh produce has become. Last summer, some customers were paying between $15 and $20 for a single watermelon.
For many families, even basic meals are becoming costly. Holliday said a simple spaghetti dinner for a family can now cost between $35 and $40.
This is especially difficult for people living in states like Mississippi, where the minimum wage is still $7.25 per hour. Holliday said it does not make sense when someone earns $7.25 an hour but has to pay $7.99 for just one pound of meat.
She described the situation as a “tug-of-war,” explaining that both grocery stores and customers are struggling with the rising costs. According to her, the financial burden is not falling on just one group — everyone is feeling the pressure.
There are many reasons why food prices have increased. Some of the biggest factors include supply chain problems caused by COVID-19, rising energy prices after the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, and extreme weather that has damaged crops.
Stephen Henn, an economics professor at Sacred Heart University, explained that food prices are often affected more by natural factors than politics.
For example, diseases and weather conditions can damage crops. Citrus greening disease and cold weather have affected orange production, causing orange juice prices to rise by about 28% in the past year.
Henn also explained that inflation happens when the supply of money increases. The United States experienced its highest inflation in more than 40 years starting in July 2021.
Although inflation has slowed down since 2024, the higher prices from earlier years have already become part of the economy. In simple terms, prices are not going down — they are just rising more slowly than before.
Some critics have blamed former President Donald Trump for rising grocery prices, especially after he claimed during a speech that chicken prices had dropped significantly since he returned to office.
However, data shows that chicken prices have actually increased by about 1% over the past year. Ground beef prices have also reached record highs. In January 2026, ground beef cost around $6.75 per pound, the highest price ever recorded by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Trump’s tariffs have also affected certain products. For example, tariffs on imported goods have helped push coffee prices up by about 20%. Still, experts say tariffs alone are not the main reason for rising food prices.
Economists say food prices started increasing before Trump’s current presidency. During Trump’s first term from 2017 to 2020, food prices rose about 1.8% per year on average.
During President Joe Biden’s administration from 2021 to 2025, food prices increased more sharply, averaging about 5.9% per year. The biggest jump happened between mid-2021 and late-2022 when inflation was at its highest.
Experts say presidents do not directly control grocery prices, but their policies can influence the economy, which then affects what farmers, food producers, and grocery stores charge.
Another factor now affecting prices is the conflict between the United States and Iran. Rising tensions have pushed oil prices higher, and that increase eventually affects food prices.
Food production requires large amounts of energy. Oil and natural gas are used for fertilizer, farming equipment, food processing, refrigeration, and transportation. When energy prices rise, the cost of producing and delivering food also increases.
Some experts also believe grocery stores are sometimes slow to reduce prices even when costs fall. Stores may worry that the market is unstable and prices could quickly rise again, or they may simply take advantage of higher prices if customers are still willing to pay them.
For families trying to manage their grocery bills, economists suggest several strategies. One of the most effective ways to save money is to cook more meals at home instead of eating out.
Buying basic staple foods such as rice, pasta, beans, and potatoes can also help reduce costs. Families are also encouraged to buy nonperishable foods in bulk when possible.
Holliday has noticed that many of her customers are buying less food overall. Some are switching from meat to beans because beans are cheaper.
She also said many people are choosing less healthy foods because they cost less.
According to Holliday, inflation is not just a statistic for families. It is something they experience every day when they walk into a grocery store and realize they can afford fewer items than before.
She believes access to food should not depend on how much money someone earns.
Holliday said communities need to work together and push for policies that help keep food prices affordable. She also believes it is important for leaders in Washington to understand the struggles people face when trying to feed their families.
As she put it, everyone needs food including the president of the United States.
