Strategist who made prediction on when Trump’s administration will ‘collapse’ makes new claim on his ‘big, beautiful bill’

James Carville, a well-known Democratic political strategist, has once again made bold predictions about the future of American politics. He’s been warning for months that Donald Trump’s presidency is on shaky ground and could collapse under the weight of controversial decisions and unpopular policies.

Back in February, Carville said that Trump’s approval ratings would continue to drop after he signed several executive orders that many found extreme and after he fired thousands of federal workers  reportedly under the influence of Elon Musk, who had become one of Trump’s closest allies at the time.

Carville has been so confident in a Republican downfall that he advised Democrats not to overreact or try too hard. Instead, he suggested they “play possum” — stay quiet and let the Republican Party fall apart on its own. He believed that this collapse could start happening in as little as 30 days.

His latest prediction is focused on Trump’s new legislation, which was officially signed into law on Independence Day. Trump dubbed the measure the “One, Big Beautiful Bill Act,” presenting it as a major win for the country. However, the contents of the bill have triggered massive backlash.

It offers large tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and corporations while cutting funding for important social safety net programs like Medicaid and food stamps. These changes would significantly impact millions of low- and middle-income families, stripping them of healthcare access and basic food support.

Carville believes this bill could be the turning point that flips the political balance in Congress. He says the bill is so deeply unpopular that it could help Democrats win up to 40 seats in the 2026 midterm elections.

That kind of gain would be extremely rare, especially considering that it usually benefits the president’s party to hold steady or lose only a few seats in midterms. But Carville is convinced that the anger sparked by this legislation could lead to a major backlash against Republicans.

Elon Musk, once aligned with Trump, has come out strongly against the bill too. He called it an “abomination” and warned that it will dramatically increase the national debt — by over \$3 trillion, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. Musk said the financial burden would fall on everyday Americans, who will have to deal with skyrocketing debt and reduced public services.

Other Democrats have voiced similar concerns. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has warned that the bill could strip healthcare from nearly 14 million Americans. She said it amounts to punishing the poor to benefit the rich and has called it a betrayal of the very people Trump once promised to protect. Many in the Democratic Party have begun calling the legislation things like the “big, bad bill” or a “big, broken promise,” saying it is a complete reversal of Trump’s campaign rhetoric.

According to Carville, the political fallout from this bill could be huge. He went so far as to call it a “mass extinction event” for Republicans in Congress, predicting that many of them will be voted out as Americans learn more about how the bill affects their lives. He said the legislation is already underwater in terms of public opinion, with approval ratings deeply negative, and he emphasized that Democrats haven’t even begun their full campaign to educate voters on its impact.

Paul Begala, another longtime Democratic strategist who appeared with Carville on CNN, supported this view. He pointed out that Medicaid, one of the programs facing cuts, is extremely popular across party lines. He reminded viewers that Trump actually won support from many Medicaid recipients, and that punishing those very voters is a political mistake. Begala said smart politicians reward their voters or try to win over new ones — but only foolish ones hurt the people who got them elected.

Recent polling seems to support some of Carville’s and Begala’s predictions. According to Real Clear Politics, Democrats currently hold a narrow lead over Republicans in national polling averages.

Another survey by Emerson College found that 43% of voters would choose Democrats on a generic congressional ballot, compared to 40% who would vote Republican. While the margin is small, Carville believes this is just the beginning, and that once voters understand the full consequences of the bill, those numbers could shift much more dramatically.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries also chimed in, saying that any Republican in a competitive district who voted to take away healthcare and support from their constituents should be held fully accountable when the elections come around. He said that voters won’t forget these decisions, especially as the real-life consequences begin to take effect.

So far, the Democrats are signaling that they will center their 2026 campaign around this bill, uniting across different regions and viewpoints to oppose what they see as a harmful and unfair law.

Carville summed it up by saying that this could be the single issue that energizes the Democratic base and draws in independent voters, potentially reshaping Congress in a way that hasn’t been seen in decades. Whether or not his bold prediction comes true remains to be seen, but the fight over this bill is clearly going to be a major focus of the political battle ahead.