The new crime data couldn’t have come at a worse time for President Donald Trump, who has built much of his political image on the idea that America’s big cities are collapsing under violence and lawlessness.
But the numbers now tell a very different story. Across the United States, homicide rates are falling—sharply. Even in many Democratic-run cities that Trump has described as “hellholes,” violent crime is actually going down, not up.
According to new data analyzed by Axios from the Major Cities Chiefs Association, murders across the country dropped by 19 percent in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same time last year. In some places, the drop was even more dramatic—over 40 percent in cities like Buffalo, Denver, Orlando, and Seattle.
These numbers completely contradict Trump’s repeated claims that American cities are out of control and that sending in the National Guard is the only way to restore order.
Still, Trump has dispatched troops to several places, including Washington, D.C., Memphis, and Chicago, and even threatened to send them to Portland and parts of California.
Back in September, he defended his decisions by saying, “Chicago is a hellhole right now. Baltimore is a hellhole right now. We have the right to call in the National Guard because I have an obligation to protect this country.”
But the actual data says otherwise. Chicago, one of the cities Trump most often criticizes, saw a 22 percent drop in overall violent crime this year—the largest decline in the nation. While it still had more homicides than any other U.S. city last year, 573 in total, its murder rate wasn’t even among the top 20 worst in the country, according to the FBI.
In Portland, where Trump once said people were “living in hell,” the homicide rate fell by 39 percent. Baltimore’sviolent crime dropped by nearly 20 percent, the fifth-biggest decrease nationwide. And Memphis, where Trump sent the National Guard in September, saw a 19 percent drop in homicides.
These numbers paint a picture completely opposite of Trump’s grim warnings. The decline in violence actually began years ago, during President Joe Biden’s final years in office, after a short surge in crime during the pandemic in 2020 the last year of Trump’s first term.
Despite the new evidence, the White House continues to stand by Trump’s stance. Abigail Jackson, the deputy press secretary, told The Daily Beast: “President Trump cares deeply about the safety and security of the American people no amount of violent crime is acceptable. Chicago has had the most murders of any U.S. city for 13 consecutive years, which has destroyed many innocent lives.”
Still, the data suggests that things are getting better, not worse. Cities like Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, and Las Vegashave all seen murder rates drop by 25 percent or more in 2025. Only a few places such as Atlanta, where robberies and assaults increased slightly, and Columbus, Ohio saw any rise in violent crime.
Even America’s two biggest cities, New York and Los Angeles, which Trump has often mocked as crime-infested, recorded major improvements: 17 percent fewer murders in New York and 23 percent fewer in Los Angeles.
