In the Rio Grande Valley, a region in South Texas that recently shifted toward Republicans after years of voting Democratic, many local business owners are now warning that the political tide could turn back again. They say President Donald Trump’s aggressive deportation policies are hurting the local economy so badly that voters may rethink their support.
The Valley had been considered reliably Democratic for decades, so Trump’s strong performance there was seen as a major breakthrough for the GOP. But now, immigration enforcement actions led by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, commonly known as ICE, are disrupting key industries that depend heavily on immigrant labor especially construction.
ICE raids at construction sites have led to the arrest of workers who do framing, foundation pouring, drywall installation, and stucco work. Builders say entire crews have disappeared overnight. One homebuilder said nearly all of his stucco workers were taken, and he has not been able to find replacements. Without enough workers, projects stall, deadlines are missed, and companies lose money.
The slowdown is spreading beyond construction sites. Flooring suppliers say customers are not picking up materials because they do not have workers available to install them.
Real estate agents report that investors are backing away from buying and developing land because they worry projects cannot be completed. Title companies say construction loans have dropped sharply, and the decline does not match normal seasonal slowdowns instead, it lines up with increased immigration enforcement.
For families in the region, the impact is personal. When construction jobs dry up or hours are cut, household incomes shrink. Some families say they are cutting back on groceries, removing small extras and sticking only to essentials. Parents describe skipping snacks and non-essential items just to stretch their budgets.
Polling from NBC News shows that many Americans are unhappy with how immigration is being handled. A majority disapprove of Trump’s approach, and a large share support changes to ICE. Even some Republican business owners in South Texas admit the economic damage is real, though they still say they agree in principle with enforcing immigration laws. This has created a tension between political beliefs and economic reality.
The White House argues that expanding apprenticeship programs and increasing H-2B work visas can solve labor shortages. Officials insist there are enough American workers to fill the jobs. But local builders say that in Texas, nearly a quarter of construction workers are undocumented, and in the Rio Grande Valley the percentage is even higher. Groups like the American Immigration Council have noted that this reliance on undocumented labor is driven by economic demand, not politics.
Now some local leaders are warning that the political consequences could be serious. They believe the same voters who helped Republicans win the region may turn away if the economic pain continues. One business leader put it bluntly, saying the Valley may “never be red again” meaning it may not vote Republican if these policies keep damaging the local economy.
In short, a region that helped expand Republican influence is now sending a warning: immigration crackdowns may satisfy a political promise, but they are also reshaping the local economy in ways that could reshape future elections.
